Application of grapes model in typhoon tracks and landing prediction 全球区域同化预报系统在台风移动与登陆预报中应用
Empirical orthogonal function ( eof ) has been applied in typhoon track forecasting 自然正交分解( eof )在台风路径预报中已得到应用。
The assimilation influence on typhoon track with different satellite data is also compared 同时也对各同化方法同化不同卫星数据对台风的影响进行了比较分析。
Based on the data in the period of 1991 - 2000 , typhoon tracks which landfall the coastal of east sea and their corresponding circulation patterns are investigated 本文对( 1991 - 2000 )年东海登陆台风路径和相应的环流特征进行分析,结果证实陈联寿等的上述结论在90年代仍然成立。
It shows that the typhoon track of the corresponding period is mainly westward in the more autumn rainfall years , but mainly northward and turning around in the less autumn rainfall years 结果表明:在秋淋偏多年份,同期台风路径以西行为主,秋季降水偏少年份,台风路径以北上、回转居多。
The typhoon track errors at model integral 24 hours and 48 hours reduce about 5 % and 10 . 5 % , respectively . though numerical simulation experiments of typhoon processes using 2dvar data assimilation system is not so good as that of the nudging method 但就所有的同化实验整体而言,台风路径误差在模式积分24时和48时分别减小约5和10 . 5 ,对单个台风路径误差可减少30 - 50 。
Chen et al noted that there are three kinds of landfall typhoon tracks ; subtropical high and polar front , whose evolutions and adjustments may modify typhoon movement , are the main synoptic systems which influence the track of landfall typhoon 陈联寿等根据( 1949 - 1976 )年资料,指出:登陆台风路径可分为三类;副热带高压和极锋是影响热带气旋陆地路径的主要天气系统,它们的演变和调整会影响热带气旋的移向。
Then , the numerical simulation experiments with satellite assimilation are launched on three typhoons in 2002 using the 2dvar data assimilation system . the comparison analysis with other data assimilation methods , such as nudging , is also going on the simulation results to typhoon track influence 使用该二维变分同化系统,对2002年发生的三个台风进行了同化卫星数据的数值模拟实验,并对模拟结果同三维观测松弛逼近等数据同化方法对台风路径影响做了比较分析。